按键盘上方向键 ← 或 → 可快速上下翻页，按键盘上的 Enter 键可回到本书目录页，按键盘上方向键 ↑ 可回到本页顶部！
————未阅读完？加入书签已便下次继续阅读！
在决定将〃非常吸引人的价格〃改成〃吸引人的价格〃。
But how； you will ask； does one decide what's 〃attractive〃？ In answering this question； most analysts feel they must choose between two approaches customarily thought to be in opposition： 〃value〃 and 〃growth。〃 Indeed； many investment professionals see any mixing of the two terms as a form of intellectual cross…dressing。
或许你又会问，那么到底应该如何决定价格够不够吸引人呢？ 在回答这个问题时，大部分的分析师通常都会选择两种看起来对立的方法，〃价值法〃与〃成长法〃，事实上有许多投资专家会将这两种方法交替运用，就像是轮流换穿衣物一样。
We view that as fuzzy thinking （in which； it must be confessed； I myself engaged some years ago）。 In our opinion； the two approaches are joined at the hip： Growth is always a ponent in the calculation of value； constituting a variable whose importance can range from negligible to enormous and whose impact can be negative as well as positive。
我们觉得这种观念似是而非（为此我个人必须承认，好几年前我也是采用这种方法），基本上我们认为这两种方法本为一体，在计算一家公司的价值时，成长当然是一件很重要的因素，这个变量将会使得所计算出来的价值从很小到极大，所造成的影响有可能是正面的，也有可能是负面的。
In addition； we think the very term 〃value investing〃 is redundant。 What is 〃investing〃 if it is not the act of seeking value at least sufficient to justify the amount paid？ Consciously paying more for a stock than its calculated value … in the hope that it can soon be sold for a still…higher price … should be labeled speculation （which is neither illegal； immoral nor … in our view … financially fattening）。
此外，我们也认为所谓的「价值投资」根本就是废话，若是所投入的资金不是为了换取追求相对应的价值的话，那还算是投资吗？ 明明知道所付出的成本已经高出其所应有的价值，而只是寄望在短期之内可以用更高的价格卖出根本就是投机的行为，（当然这种行为一点都不会违法，也不违反道德，只是就我们的观点来说，只是在玩吹气球游戏而已）。
Whether appropriate or not； the term 〃value investing〃 is widely used。 Typically； it connotes the purchase of stocks having attributes such as a low ratio of price to book value； a low price…earnings ratio； or a high dividend yield。 Unfortunately； such characteristics； even if they appear in bination； are far from determinative as to whether an investor is indeed buying something for what it is worth and is therefore truly operating on the principle of obtaining value in his investments。 Correspondingly； opposite characteristics … a high ratio of price to book value； a high price…earnings ratio； and a low dividend yield … are in no way inconsistent with a 〃value〃 purchase。
不管适不适当，「价值投资」这个名词常常被人引用，一般而言，它代表投资人以较低的股价/净值比或是本益比或是高的股利收益率买进投资标的，很不幸的是，就算是具备以上所有的特点，投资人还是很难确保所买到的投资标的确有此价值，从而确信他的投资是依照取得企业价值的原意在进行；相对地，以较高的股价/净值比或是本益比或是低的股利收益率买进投资标的，也不一定就代表不是一项有「价值」的投资。
Similarly； business growth； per se； tells us little about value。 It's true that growth often has a positive impact on value； sometimes one of spectacular proportions。 But such an effect is far from certain。 For example； investors have regularly poured money into the domestic airline business to finance profitless （or worse） growth。 For these investors； it would have been far better if Orville had failed to get off the ground at Kitty Hawk： The more the industry has grown； the worse the disaster for owners。
同样的企业成长本身而言，也很难保证就一定代表价值，当然成长通常会对价值有正面的影响，有时是相当重要的一项前提，但这种影响却不是绝对，例如投资人以往将大笔的资金投入到国内的航空业来支持获利无望（或是悲惨）的成长，对于这些投资人来说，应该会希望莱特兄弟当初没有驾着小鹰号成功起飞，航空产业越发达，这些投资人就越悲惨。
Growth benefits investors only when the business in point can invest at incremental returns that are enticing … in other words； only when each dollar used to finance the growth creates over a dollar of long…term market value。 In the case of a low…return business requiring incremental funds； growth hurts the investor。
成长只有当企业将资金投入到可以增加更多报酬的活动上，投资人才有可能受惠，换句话说，只有当每投入的一块钱可以在未来创造超过一块钱的价值时，成长才有意义，至于那些需要资金但却只能创造出低报酬的公司，成长对于投资人来说反而是有害的。
In The Theory of Investment Value； written over 50 years ago； John Burr Williams set forth the equation for value； which we condense here： The value of any stock； bond or business today is determined by the cash inflows and outflows … discounted at an appropriate interest rate … that can be expected to occur during the remaining life of the asset。 Note that the formula is the same for stocks as for bonds。 Even so； there is an important； and difficult to deal with； difference between the two： A bond has a coupon and maturity date that define future cash flows； but in the case of equities； the investment analyst must himself estimate the future 〃coupons。〃 Furthermore； the quality of management affects the bond coupon only rarely … chiefly when management is so inept or dishonest that payment of interest is suspended。 In contrast； the ability of management can dramatically affect the equity 〃coupons。〃
在John Burr Williams 50年前所写的投资价值理论当中，老早便已提出计算价值的公式，。我把它浓缩列示如下：今天任何股票、债券或是企业的价值，都将取决于其未来年度剩余年限的现金流入与流出，以一个适当的利率加以折现后所得的期望值，特别注意这个公式对于股票与债券皆一体适用，不过这里有一点很重要但却很难克服差异的差异，那就是债券有债票与到期日可以清楚的定义未来的现金流入，但是就股票而言，投资者必须自己去分析未来可能得到的票息，更重要的是管理阶层的品质对于债券的影响相当有限，顶多因为公司无能或是诚信明显不足而延迟债息的发放，但是对于股票投资者来说，管理阶层的能力将大大影响未来票息发放的能力。
The investment shown by the discounted…flows…of…cash calculation to be the cheapest is the one that the investor should purchase … irrespective of whether the business grows or doesn't； displays volatility or smoothness in its earnings； or carries a high price or low in relation to its current earnings and book value。 Moreover； though the value equation has usually shown equities to be cheaper than bonds； that result is not inevitable： When bonds are calculated to be the more attractive investment； they should be bought。
根据这种现金流量折现的公式计算，投资人应该选择的是价钱最低的那一种投资，不论他的盈余变化大不大、营收有没有成长，与现在的盈余以及帐面价值差多少，虽然大部分的状况下，投资股票所算出来的价值会比债券要来多划算，但是这却不是绝对，要是当债券所算出来的价值高于股票，则投资人应该买的就是债券。
Leaving the question of price aside； the best business to own is one that over an extended period can employ large amounts of incremental capital at very high rates of return。 The worst business to own is one that must； or will； do the opposite … that is； consistently employ ever…greater amounts of capital at very low rates of return。 Unfortunately； the first type of business is very hard to find： Most high…return businesses need relatively little capital。 Shareholders of such a business usually will benefit if it pays out most of its earnings in dividends or makes significant stock repurchases。
今天先不管价格多少，最值得拥有的企业是那种在一段长的期间可以将大笔的资金运用在相当高报酬的投资上，最不值得拥有的企业是那种跟前面那个例子完全相反的，在一段长的期间将大笔的资金运用在相当低报酬的投资之上，不幸的是，第一类的企业可遇不可求，大部分拥有高报酬的企业都不需要太多的资金，这类企业的股东通常会因为公司发放大量的股利或是买回自家公司的股份而大大地受惠。
Though the mathematical calculations required to evaluate equities are not difficult； an analyst … even one who is experienced and intelligent … can easily go wrong in estimating future 〃coupons。〃 At Berkshire； we attempt to deal with this problem in two ways。 First； we try to stick to businesses we believe we understand。 That means they must be relatively simple and stable in character。 If a business is plex or subject to constant change； we're not smart enough to predict future cash flows。 Incidentally； that shorting doesn't bother us。 What counts for most people in investing is not how much they know； but rather how realistically they define what they don't know。 An investo